Unproven Thesis
The Reflective Aperture U, the Unproven Thesis mark
An Always Questioning publication

Unproven Thesis

Strong views, pending evidence.

Occasional essays on things I currently suspect are true.

No schedule, no pitch. Or start with the latest essay.

Latest essay

Essay No. 1·Persuasion & belief·about 4 min

Changing your mind in public is a status trade

People hold beliefs past the evidence because reversing them in public costs status. Belief change is priced in reputation, not logic.

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What this is

An essay publication for claims interesting enough to test in public, but not settled enough to become doctrine.

The range runs from small daily observations to technology, institutions, and power.

Each piece makes one argument, states it plainly enough to disagree with, and names the part most likely to be wrong.

The rule

A piece ships only when all three are true

The publishing rule
  1. The thesis fits in one sentence.
  2. The weak spot is interesting.
  3. It would still be worth reading if the thesis turns out to be wrong.

Tracked in the open

The Register

Every thesis is public from its first rough idea, and you can watch it move down the pipeline until it earns the page.

Idea Hypothesis Research Citation Writing Published
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If an argument holds up, or if it does not, the next one is worth your scrutiny too.

Occasional essays. Personal and provisional. Or read on Substack.